FC Cincinnati – Speaking in Numbers

In this segment, I sift through a little data from FC Cincinnati’s box scores and turn that data into (allegedly) more usable information. I play with data as a profession, so why not put a little of that knowledge to good use here rather than using it to make money for big companies?

The goal is to draw some interesting or meaningful insights, but one has to start with some simple metrics first as a baseline. So, let’s take a look at a few offensive metrics and see what they tell us about FC Cincinnati’s season to date. Because FCC is playing their next 2 matches at home against the Canadian tandem of FC Montréal and Toronto FC II, we’ll focus on home stats only.

Where is the offense coming from at Nippert?

WDO-HOME

The six players listed above have had the biggest statistical offensive impact in home matches. As one would expect, the front three of FCC’s formation, McLaughlin, Okoli and Wiedeman, weigh heavily in these offensive categories. Sean Okoli leads the way with 3 goals and 2 assists at home. Corben Bone has 2 home assists and Pat McMahon has gotten forward to good effect in this subset of games.

Can we all agree that Pat McMahon is FC Cincinnati’s version of Silicon Valley’s Bertram Gilfoyle, especially given his expression and manbun-free look on the FC Cincinnati player roster? Gilfoyle’s my favorite character in this gut-busting series so that’s meant to be a compliment. If you haven’t seen it, go binge watch it. You’ll thank me later.

Austin Berry’s early season heroics against Charlotte and Louisville City are still enough to get him on the list of the most influential offensive players, but clearly just from a goals perspective. Although Nicholson has filled in well, the team would sure get a hell of a boost from having Berry back in the lineup. Let’s hope it’s not long now.

There’s one home goal not accounted for by the six players above, can you figure out who scored it? Comment below, if so.

Wieda-Richmond
Let’s break up all these numbers with a picture of men sweating and kicking a soccer ball

How does FCC’s offense compare to the opposition at home?

FCC Offensive Stats at NippertOpposition Offensive Stats at Nippert

These charts admittedly aren’t the easiest on the eye, so here is the upshot.

FC Cincinnati are 3-1-2 at home. They have scored 9 goals in 6 games for a 1.5 goals per game average compared to their opponents’ 1 goal per game. They outshoot the opposition on average by 42% and have about 8 shots on goal per game to their opponents’ 5.

FCC and their competitors produce roughly the same percentage of shots on target (about 50%) and it takes each roughly 10 total shots to produce a goal.

A few items items to note:

Louisville City’s 3 goals on 6 total shots helps to bolster the oppositions’ goals scored and shooting percentage numbers. Aside from that result, the FCC defense has been pretty stingy at home.

In the last two home matches against Harrisburg and Richmond, total shots and shots on goal have been below average. That is a trend to watch and one we hope won’t continue against upcoming Canadian opposition.

Last Saturday, Richmond had more total shots and shots on goal than FCC, largely due to their late game charge in a successful attempt to equalize. That match was the first time the Orange and Blue have been outshot at home and only the second time that phenomenon has occurred all season. The Steel marginally outshot Harkes’ men 10-9 in week 2 in Bethlehem.

Numbers can be fun, but talking about them for too long makes for a dull boy. We’ve covered some basic home stats, and will look forward to going more Moneyball on a different day.

‘Til next time.  Remember, numbers are your friend…Or are they?

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
Benjamin Disraeli

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